Murillo
Nott'm Forest · DEF · £5.5m
1453.5
Elo
Up 7.7 since May
1518 Z-Score
Latest · GW6
1453.5, down 1.9 after a yellow card and 10 defensive actions against Crystal Palace (A)
Overall rank
#87
of 436 on Z-Score
Excellent top 5% to 20% of the rated
DEF rank
#33
of 155 on Z-Score
Total Points
25
PPG
4.20
Z-Score: DEF points per game are compared against a 3.14 average , spread 1.49. Measured against this season's regulars (94 of them), pulled toward the same measurement over 2025-26 (42 players).
01
Upcoming fixtures
ARS (H) GW7
IPS (A) GW8
BRE (A) GW9
MCI (H) GW10
BOU (A) GW11
02
2026/27 gameweek by gameweek
Form 3.0
vs season average -0.2
Appearances 6
- GW6 Crystal Palace, away 2 pts 1453.5 Elo -1.9 rating change A yellow card10 defensive actions 5 BPS
- GW5 Coventry City, home 4 pts 1455.4 Elo +1 rating change 11 defensive actions 16 BPS
- GW4 Aston Villa, away 6 pts 1454.4 Elo +4.1 rating change An assistA yellow card12 defensive actions 18 BPS
- GW3 Spurs, home 8 pts 1450.3 Elo +6.7 rating change 10 defensive actions 25 BPS
- GW2 Liverpool, away 1 pts 1443.6 Elo -3.4 rating change 6 defensive actions 2 BPS
- GW1 Leeds, home 4 pts 1447.0 Elo +1.2 rating change 14 defensive actions 15 BPS
03
Season stats
Goals 0
Assists 1
Clean Sheets 1
Bonus 0
Minutes 539
04
Expected stats Expected goals and assists based on the quality of chances. Compares what a player 'should' score vs what they actually score.
xG
Expected Goals. Season total of goals expected based on shot quality. Compare to actual goals to see if clinical or unlucky. 0.62
xA
Expected Assists. Season total of assists expected based on key pass quality. Compare to actual assists. 0.18
xG/90
Expected Goals per 90 mins. Normalizes for minutes played. 0.5+ is very good for forwards, 0.3+ good for midfielders. 0.10
xA/90
Expected Assists per 90 mins. Normalizes for minutes played. 0.3+ is very good. Shows creative output rate. 0.03
Goals vs xG
Actual goals minus expected. Positive = clinical finisher beating xG. Negative = underperforming, may be due for positive regression. 0 from 0.6 xG -0.6
05
Ownership
2.1% of FPL squads have picked Murillo
Percentage of FPL squads that have picked Murillo right now.
06
Elo Glicko-style skill rating. It updates match by match and carries across seasons rather than resetting, so it is not a count of points scored.
Current
1500 is the baseline a player with no history starts from. Higher is a stronger record against the players they have faced. 1453.5
Started 2026/27 at
Where this rating stood when 2025-26 closed in May. It is frozen there for the season, so the movement below is measured against it. 1445.8
Since May Movement is measured against where the Elo stood when 2025-26 closed in May, which is the figure carried into 2026/27. +7.7
Peak, all time
The highest this rating has ever reached, counting every season the player has been rated in. A large gap between the peak and the current number means they are below their best. 1500.0
Peak, 2026/27 The highest this rating has reached through 2026/27 football alone. It fills in once a gameweek of this season has been rated, so it is empty for the whole of pre-season. 1455.4
Confidence
Rating Deviation. Lower = more confident rating. Higher = less data, rating may change quickly. 136 RD
Games, career
Appearances behind this rating, counted across every season the player has been rated in rather than this one alone. 31
Games, 2026/27 How many of those appearances are 2026/27 ones. The rating row cannot always separate the seasons, and where it cannot this says so rather than showing a zero. 6
Opened 2026/27 on
The appearance count frozen when 2026/27 opened. Take it off the career figure above and what is left is this season's, so the split can be checked rather than taken on trust. 25
Evidence
The bars beside an Elo say how much football is behind it. One bar is a rating built on a handful of matches, which can move a long way once games are played, and three bars is close to a full season of evidence behind the number. 5.99 games
Trend
Which way this rating is moving, measured across 2026/27 gameweeks alone. It needs two of them behind it, so before that it reads as not recorded rather than as steady. Stable
It is built on 5.99 games, so most of this rating is still the starting assumption every player begins from, with about 38 per cent of it measured. Expect it to move a long way once matches are played.
07
FAPR Fixture-Adjusted Performance Rating. Adjusts PPG based on opponent difficulty faced.
FAPR 0.10
Raw PPG 4.20
Adjustment
Positive = performed better vs tough opponents. Negative = stats boosted by easy fixtures. +0.05
Consistent performance regardless of opponent quality.
08
PvE Performance vs Expected. Compares actual output to expected goals/assists. Shows if player is over or underperforming.
Ratio
Above 1.0 = scoring more than expected. Below 1.0 = scoring less than expected. 0.00x
Difference -0.6 goals
Underperforming xG/xA - positive regression likely.
09
Edge factor
Due Regression Underperforming expected stats - positive regression likely
10
Elo history
GW1
1447
GW2
1444
GW3
1450
GW4
1454
GW5
1455
GW6
1454